The test
A growing map of ways to know.
See how you know what you know. 31 questions place you on a map built from 51 axes, and shows you the mind you've been using. Answer 20 more if you want the match sharpened.
Four answers: Yes, No, Depends (it changes with the context), Unsure. Tap one per question and move on. On a desktop, keys 1–4 answer and ↓ moves to the next question. The quiz opens with the 31 questions that do the most to place you; the rest of the 51-axis map is one button away when you want a sharper match.
0 of 31 core reviewed
All four answers count: Yes, No, Depends, Unsure. Your % match is agreement over the questions you both answered. Yes vs No is 0; Depends holds both poles and half-agrees with either; Unsure is no stance: 0 against a pole, 0.5 against Depends or Unsure. Nothing you answer is dropped.
the map so far
Your result card
The map
Every dot answered the same questions you are answering.
Each system sits near the ones that answer like it. It is a 2D simplification of a larger space, so read shared answers, not raw distance. Finish the test and your dot lands here.
What is the Pit of Despair?
The Pit of Despair: a constructed position that answers “No” to nearly every question, including “anything can be known.” It is a limit case we built to test the map, not a place a real mind drifts to. In the map's geometry it is a corner, not a whirlpool: simulated systems drift away from it under pressure, not toward it. Load-bearing questions, the ones the map marks as black holes, are explained with the bars below.
How to read it
- A dot is one belief system's full answer sheet.
- Neighbors on the map answered most questions the same way.
- Stars and diamonds are named thinkers and textbook positions; circles are constructed systems.
- The amber ring is you, once you finish the test.
The Ceiling The mystics and the faithful Radical Doubt The Long Table The Mirror Cabinet The Engine Room The suspicion booth The Four Towers The Clear Signal
Method appendix: the same map as plain PCA
The well and the Pit
Same dots, re-plotted: how deep each system sits next to the Pit of Despair.
This figure uses the coordinates from the map above, so a cluster keeps its neighbors: it asks where each system sits next to the Pit of Despair.
The Well and the Pit of Despair
Is the Pit of Despair a whirlpool that drags systems in, or just a corner of the map? Height here is distance from it: the lower a dot sits, the fewer of its answers say no to everything. A dot at the bottom agrees with almost nothing, including the claim that anything can be known. A dot at the top endorses nearly every load-bearing answer at once. Most real positions sit in the middle, and that is the ordinary result, not a warning sign.
The questions
Plain language, with the room's answers.
Each card gives the question, an everyday example of what yes and no look like, how the 137 belief systems answered, and the strongest case for each side. Most questions ask what is the case in the world (science, math, method). A few, tagged value, ask what is right, beautiful, sacred, or worth wanting.
Where these percentages come from: the language model played 137 belief systems and answered each question as that system. These are stated positions, not a survey of random people. A few questions are load-bearing. Reject the one about a world that doesn't depend on minds, or the one about truth being made by reality, and the rest of your answers have less to stand on: what would they be about? The map calls those questions black holes. It is a statement about geometry, not a grade. Your answers are never scored right or wrong. Each bar: green is the share that answer yes, red no, gray skip or answer unsure or depends.
Value questions. A few cards are tagged value: they ask what is right, beautiful, sacred, or worth wanting, not what happens to be the case. They are shown in place among the fact questions, but they are a different family. Answering a physics fact with confidence and a moral claim with care is not a contradiction, and the map does not treat it as one.
Value questions. A few cards are tagged value: they ask what is right, beautiful, sacred, or worth wanting, not what happens to be the case. They are shown in place among the fact questions, but they are a different family. Answering a physics fact with confidence and a moral claim with care is not a contradiction, and the map does not treat it as one.
Part 1The Object8 questions
There's a real world that doesn't care what we think.
YESthe mountain was there before anyone named it.NO'the mountain' is a human story - no minds, no mountain.
best case for YESYou have stubbed your toe on furniture you did not believe in. The world pushes back whether or not you consent.
best case for NOYou never meet a world that is not already filtered through a mind, so the unfiltered version is something you assume, never something you check.
84% yes13% no3% unsure
How each community answered9
The Long Table100% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful94% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +14
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Mirror Cabinet71% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist +8 · no: The Consensus Realist +3
yes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistno: The Consensus Realist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Quiet Solipsist, The Unitary Mystic
Radical Doubt19% yesno: Michel Foucault, Robert Anton Wilson +11 · yes: Nietzsche +2
no: Michel Foucault, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pit + Mind-independent world
Things are true because of how the world is, not because we agree.
YESdinosaurs existed before we found the fossils.NOa fact is whatever survives checking - nothing more.
best case for YESThe fossil was in the rock before anyone dug it up. Something has to make a claim true besides how many people like it.
best case for NODrop the world and 'true' still does work: coherent, useful, agreed-on. Correspondence is one theory of truth, not a requirement.
79% yes18% no3% unsure
How each community answered9
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Ceiling91% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +18 · no: The Survival Pragmatist +1
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingno: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Long Table83% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · no: David Graeber +2
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Thomas Kuhn, The Kantian
The mystics and the faithful82% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +12 · no: Jordan Peterson +2
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitionerno: Jordan Peterson, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, William James
The Clear Signal80% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +6 · no: The Instrumental Relativist +1
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistno: The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist +9 · no: The Consensus Realist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistno: The Consensus Realist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Unitary Mystic
Radical Doubt12% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +12 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +1
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Paul Feyerabend, Pit + Reality grounds truth
Every factual question has one right answer waiting out there, however you ask it.
YEScount the continents off the map and get seven; the rocks decide, whether or not anyone bothers to count.NOthe same map gives five, six, or seven continents depending on the convention, and nobody disagrees about a single rock.
best case for YESThe die showed six even though nobody looked. If there were no fact of the matter, betting would be arbitrary. The world fixes the answer, not our framing.
best case for NOAsk whether Pluto is a planet or a seven-day week is a week, and the world is silent: the convention decides, and two people who agree on every rock can still answer differently.
75% yes21% no4% unsure
How each community answered9
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist +9 · no: The Consensus Realist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Consensus Realist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian
The mystics and the faithful75% yesyes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist +10 · no: Carl Jung +3
yes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitionerno: Carl Jung, Jordan Peterson, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, William James
The Long Table72% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · no: David Graeber +4
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Wittgenstein, The Kantianno: David Graeber, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Clear Signal70% yesyes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +5 · no: The Absurdist +2
yes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistno: The Absurdist, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Firsthand experience is evidence about the world, not just appearance.
YESyou feel a pain in your knee, and that is a reason to believe something is wrong with it.NOthe feeling in your knee says only that your knee hurts, never what is wrong with it; without a doctor, it is a report on you, not on the knee.
best case for YESYou feel a pain in your knee, and you act on it before any doctor confirms the cause. Firsthand experience is evidence about the world, not only about how things seem.
best case for NOYou feel certain the deal is crooked, but until you check, that feeling is only a fact about you. Experience by itself is no evidence about the world beyond how it seems.
59% yes40% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful79% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +13 · no: Confucius +3
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Michael Polanyi, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Confucius, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher
The Long Table59% yesyes: Aristotle, David Graeber +8 · no: Dario Amodei +6
yes: Aristotle, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Dario Amodei, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine
The Engine Room38% yesno: Kant, Karl Popper +6 · yes: Ayn Rand +4
no: Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesianyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Four Towers30% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +5 · yes: Thomas Aquinas +2
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socratesyes: Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The suspicion booth15% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +9 · yes: Eric Weinstein +1
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The mind sorts the world; the sorting isn't given.
YES'weed vs tree' is our filing system; nature grows both.NOan electron is really a kind of thing, not a convention.
best case for YES'Weed' and 'tree' are our filing, not nature's. Cut wherever you like; the world does not object.
best case for NOWater really is H2O and an electron really is a kind of thing. Some categories carve nature at the joints.
36% yes61% no4% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt100% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The suspicion booth54% yesyes: The Contrarian, The Fable +5 · no: Brett Weinstein +5
yes: The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla
The Engine Room38% yesno: Ayn Rand, Epicurus +6 · yes: David Hume +4
no: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesianyes: David Hume, Kant, Marx, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The mystics and the faithful35% yesno: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist +9 · yes: Carl Jung +5
no: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioneryes: Carl Jung, Jordan Peterson, The Advaita Teacher, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, William James
The Long Table35% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +9 · yes: David Graeber +5
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandriayes: David Graeber, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Four Towers30% yesno: Augustine, Leibniz +5 · yes: Descartes +2
no: Augustine, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsyes: Descartes, Hegel, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet29% yesno: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist +8 · yes: The Consensus Realist +3
no: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistyes: The Consensus Realist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Quiet Solipsist, The Unitary Mystic
The Ceiling0% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Math truths are discovered, not invented.
YEStwo and two made four before there were minds to count it.NOthe sum is a rule our concepts make true; there is no realm of numbers out there.
best case for YESTwo and two made four before there were minds to notice. Mathematics is discovered, not invented.
best case for NONo mind has to exist for the sum to follow from the concepts, but there is no realm of numbers out there either: math is a human construction that works.
74% yes18% no8% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The mystics and the faithful85% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +9 · no: The Dzogchen Practitioner +1
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Great-Books Student, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitionerno: The Dzogchen Practitioner, William James
The Engine Room73% yesyes: Ayn Rand, Karl Popper +6 · no: David Hume +2
yes: Ayn Rand, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivistno: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant
The Long Table62% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +8 · no: David Graeber +5
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein
The Clear Signal60% yesyes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +4 · no: The Absurdist +3
yes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipperno: The Absurdist, The Instrumental Relativist, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
valueSome things are wrong no matter who approves.
YEScruelty stays wrong even if a whole society applauds it.NOa practice is wrong only where a community says so.
best case for YESCruelty stays wrong even if a whole society applauds it. That is what people mean when they call something evil.
best case for NOA practice is wrong only where a community says so. The rest is one group's opinion wearing a crown.
69% yes26% no4% unsure
How each community answered9
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet93% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The mystics and the faithful89% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +14 · no: The Neo-Nondual Teacher +1
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitionerno: The Neo-Nondual Teacher, William James
The suspicion booth88% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +5
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Nikola Tesla, The Fable, The Popperian
The Long Table67% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +10 · no: David Graeber +5
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein
The Engine Room23% yesno: David Hume, Karl Popper +8 · yes: Ayn Rand +2
no: David Hume, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivistyes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Kant
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
valueSome things are beautiful whether or not anyone is watching.
YESa proof is called elegant the way a face is called lovely.NOthe sunset is atoms; the beauty is your retina doing the rest.
best case for YESA proof is called elegant the way a face is called lovely. The recognition is not arbitrary.
best case for NOThe sunset is atoms. The beauty is your retina doing the rest.
42% yes53% no5% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Long Table59% yesyes: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker) +8 · no: Dario Amodei +6
yes: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Wittgenstein, The Kantianno: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, The Effective Altruist, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine
The suspicion booth57% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, Eric Weinstein +2 · no: David Deutsch +2
yes: Brett Weinstein, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Popperianno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk
Radical Doubt56% yesyes: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic +8 · no: Michel Foucault +7
yes: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The Engine Room8% yesno: David Hume, Epicurus +10
no: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Ceiling5% yesno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
no: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet0% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Part 2The Sources6 questions
Reasoning alone, with no new evidence, can establish real truths, math included.
YESyou establish a theorem by proof alone, with no observation at all.NOthe proof only unfolds the axioms you chose; it tells you nothing that was not already in them.
best case for YESA proof reaches a theorem with no observation at all, and every axiom system is checked by the same logic. Reasoning alone establishes real truths.
best case for NOEvery proof only unfolds what was already packed into the premises; pick other axioms and you prove something else. New truth needs something outside reason to reach it.
66% yes34% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Verificationist
The Mirror Cabinet86% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · no: The Fideist +1
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistno: The Fideist, The Unitary Mystic
The Long Table72% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · no: David Graeber +4
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine
The Engine Room69% yesyes: Ayn Rand, Kant +7 · no: David Hume +3
yes: Ayn Rand, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: David Hume, Epicurus, Marx, The Humean Skeptic
The mystics and the faithful16% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +14 · yes: The Great-Books Student +2
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesyes: The Great-Books Student, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The senses are our main window on the world.
YESyou duck because you saw the ball coming.NOa hunch - or a sacred text - outranks your eyes.
best case for YESWhen your eyes and a book disagree about the temperature, you believe the thermometer you can read.
best case for NOWhat you see is shaped by what you expect, and instruments out-see eyes constantly. The senses are the start, not the standard.
61% yes38% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table94% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Engine Room92% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal80% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +6 · no: The Logicist +1
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistno: The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · no: The Fideist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistno: The Fideist, The Naive Platonist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth31% yesno: David Deutsch, Eric Weinstein +7 · yes: Brett Weinstein +3
no: David Deutsch, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The GPT-6 Astra
Radical Doubt24% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +11 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +3
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The mystics and the faithful21% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +13 · yes: Iain McGilchrist +3
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioneryes: Iain McGilchrist, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Songline Keeper, William James
The Four Towers10% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +7
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
God or ultimate reality can reveal truths directly that reasoning and observation could not reach.
YESscripture or a religious experience delivers truths that reason and observation could not reach.NOa private vision never settles a public question, and nothing else reaches where reason cannot.
best case for YESPeople who pray and meditate across unconnected traditions report the same kind of contact with God or ultimate reality. If something discloses itself, the disclosure is a real source of knowledge.
best case for NORevelations contradict each other and cannot settle a public question between two people who did not have them. What reason and observation cannot reach, nothing reaches.
39% yes60% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful89% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +15 · no: Confucius +1
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Confucius, Michael Polanyi
The Ceiling82% yesyes: Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained +16 · no: Charles Peirce +3
yes: Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Revelation is real
The Four Towers60% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +4 · no: Marcus Aurelius +3
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Thomas Aquinas, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
Radical Doubt29% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +10 · yes: Robert Anton Wilson +4
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Sextus Empiricus, The Late-Modern Critic, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair
The Mirror Cabinet29% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +8 · yes: The Conspiracist +3
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalistyes: The Conspiracist, The Fideist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Long Table17% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · yes: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +2
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantianyes: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth0% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Gut feelings carry real information.
YESyou distrust the deal before you can say why, and the feeling is reading something real about the deal.NOyour distrust is only your own nerves and appetite talking; it says nothing about the deal itself.
best case for YESYou distrust the deal before you can say why, and you are right often enough that the signal is real.
best case for NOGut feelings are pattern-matching you cannot audit. When they are wrong, you never find out why.
52% yes48% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Ceiling91% yesyes: Charles Peirce, Ceiling − Certainty is required +18 · no: The Khipu Keeper +1
yes: Charles Peirce, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist
The Four Towers70% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +5 · no: Hegel +2
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Hegel, Marcus Aurelius, Socrates
The Long Table56% yesyes: Aristotle, David Graeber +8 · no: Dario Amodei +7
yes: Aristotle, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Dario Amodei, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian
The suspicion booth46% yesno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +5 · yes: Brett Weinstein +5
no: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickyes: Brett Weinstein, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Frontier Researcher, The Popperian
Radical Doubt44% yesno: Michel Foucault, Pyrrho +8 · yes: Nietzsche +7
no: Michel Foucault, Pyrrho, Sextus Empiricus, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair
The Mirror Cabinet7% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Testimony from people you trust is usually enough for everyday claims.
YESyou accept most of what you were taught in school.NOwhat you were taught in school counts for nothing until you check each claim against the evidence yourself.
best case for YESYou could not cross the street if you re-verified every green light yourself. Trust is the default that makes learning possible.
best case for NOEvery lie, scam, and hoax runs on default trust. Verification is expensive because it works.
69% yes31% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Long Table100% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful95% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Mirror Cabinet71% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +8 · no: The Conspiracist +3
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Last Knower, The Quiet Solipsist
The Four Towers50% yesyes: Augustine, Hegel +3 · no: Descartes +4
yes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsno: Descartes, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The suspicion booth46% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +5 · yes: The Fable +5
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarianyes: The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Engine Room23% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +8 · yes: The Strict Bayesian +2
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machineyes: The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
Radical Doubt22% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +12 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +3
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Paul Feyerabend, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate
valueThe body holds knowledge that words cannot fully capture.
YESknowing how to ride is real knowledge that no explanation fully captures.NOthe hands can ride, but the skill is habit; the knowledge is the explanation you could give.
best case for YESA rider's balance adjusts to the horse before any sentence could say how. Knowing how to do something is a kind of knowing that words never fully capture.
best case for NOThe hands can do it, but the skill is habit. Knowledge lives in the part of the rider that could explain it.
66% yes27% no7% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The mystics and the faithful94% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +15
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Long Table53% yesyes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +7 · no: Aristotle +7
yes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgensteinno: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian
Radical Doubt38% yesno: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic +8 · yes: Michel Foucault +5
no: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The suspicion booth31% yesno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +7 · yes: Brett Weinstein +3
no: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The GPT-6 Astra
The Engine Room30% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +5 · yes: Epicurus +2
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Kant, Richard Dawkins, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistyes: Epicurus, Karl Popper, The Humean Skeptic
The Four Towers0% yesno: Descartes, Hegel +6
no: Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
Part 3The Doubt6 questions
Most of what your average neighbor believes about health, history, and politics is off the mark.
YESthe misconceptions list is longer than the facts list.NOordinary belief is mostly right, or society couldn't work.
best case for YESLook at the misconceptions list: it is longer than the facts list. Error is the baseline state.
best case for NOIf ordinary belief were mostly false, science, courts, and language would never have worked. It is mostly right.
25% yes75% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt72% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +11 · no: Paul Feyerabend +4
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Paul Feyerabend, Sextus Empiricus, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, Pit + Error is the baseline
The suspicion booth46% yesno: The Contrarian, The Fable +5 · yes: Brett Weinstein +5
no: The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla
The Four Towers40% yesno: Augustine, Hegel +4 · yes: Descartes +3
no: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Descartes, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates
The Engine Room31% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +7 · yes: Marx +3
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistyes: Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, The Humean Skeptic
The mystics and the faithful16% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +14 · yes: Pascal +2
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesyes: Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
The Mirror Cabinet14% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · yes: The Conspiracist +1
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticyes: The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling5% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table0% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
'Maybe I'm dreaming' should shape how you live.
YES'maybe I'm dreaming' should temper how hard you cling.NOyou plan your day assuming you're awake; that's fine.
best case for YES'Maybe I am dreaming' should temper how hard you cling to anything. The floor you stand on might not be there.
best case for NOYou plan your day assuming you are awake, and that assumption works. Keeping every skeptical scenario live buys nothing.
16% yes83% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt71% yesyes: Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson +10 · no: Michel Foucault +4
yes: Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, The Late-Modern Critic, The Hard Skeptic
The Four Towers30% yesno: Hegel, Leibniz +5 · yes: Augustine +2
no: Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsyes: Augustine, Descartes, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The suspicion booth15% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +9 · yes: Eliezer Yudkowsky +1
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk
The mystics and the faithful11% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +15 · yes: The Advaita Teacher +1
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesyes: The Advaita Teacher, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Ceiling5% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table0% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet0% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
Only proven-beyond-doubt things count as knowledge.
YESif you might be wrong, you don't know yet.NOyou know the sun will rise, though certainty is impossible.
best case for YESIf you might be wrong, you do not know yet. 'Knowledge' should mean something stronger than 'probably'.
best case for NOYou know the sun will rise, though certainty is impossible. Demanding it leaves you with no knowledge at all.
22% yes76% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Four Towers60% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +4 · no: Hegel +3
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Plato, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Hegel, Marcus Aurelius, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas
Radical Doubt44% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +7 · yes: The Pit of Despair +6
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, Pit + Certainty is requiredyes: The Pit of Despair, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Mirror Cabinet36% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +7 · yes: The Fideist +4
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalistyes: The Fideist, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal30% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +5 · yes: The Logicist +2
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistyes: The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper
The Long Table17% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · yes: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +2
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Wittgenstein, The Kantian
The Engine Room15% yesno: David Hume, Epicurus +9 · yes: Ayn Rand +1
no: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skepticyes: Ayn Rand, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth15% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +9 · yes: Nikola Tesla +1
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Nikola Tesla, The Fable
The Ceiling5% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful5% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
You never see without assumptions in your eyes.
YESthe radiologist sees a tumor; you see gray smudges.NOtwo careful people looking see the same thing.
best case for YESThe radiologist sees a tumor where you see gray smudges. Training changes what the eyes deliver.
best case for NOTwo careful people looking at the same X-ray converge. If perception were all theory, medicine would be impossible.
52% yes47% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt100% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The mystics and the faithful95% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Long Table56% yesyes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +8 · no: Aristotle +7
yes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantianno: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Four Towers50% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +3 · no: Marcus Aurelius +4
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Platono: Marcus Aurelius, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Engine Room38% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +6 · yes: Kant +4
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Richard Dawkins, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivistyes: Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Robin Hanson, The Strict Bayesian
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Mirror Cabinet7% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Ceiling5% yesno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
no: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
Doubting everything you can't justify is productive.
YESdoubt everything unjustified, rebuild from bedrock.NOdoubt everything and you can't cross the street.
best case for YESDescartes rebuilt certainty by doubting everything. Doubt is the tool that finds the load-bearing floor.
best case for NODoubt everything and you cannot cross the street. Method doubt is a phase, not a life.
46% yes54% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling91% yesyes: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required +18 · no: Charles Peirce +1
yes: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper
The suspicion booth85% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky +9 · no: David Deutsch +1
yes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianno: David Deutsch, Nikola Tesla
The Four Towers50% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +3 · no: Leibniz +4
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Socrates, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
Radical Doubt17% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +13 · yes: Pyrrho +2
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus
The mystics and the faithful0% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Long Table0% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
There is no question about the world that is, by its nature, beyond every possible inquiry.
YESscience keeps decoding weather, cells, galaxies - and on this view no question is in principle off-limits.NOwhy anything exists is in principle beyond inquiry: no investigation, however complete, could ever answer it.
best case for YESWeather, cells, galaxies: three centuries of decoding. The record says inquiry converges.
best case for NOWhy anything exists at all is in principle closed to us: no completed inquiry would reach it. Legibility so far is not legibility in principle.
89% yes10% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Long Table100% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +16
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +7
yes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The mystics and the faithful84% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +14 · no: Pascal +2
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, The Advaita Teacher, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
Radical Doubt38% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +8 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +5
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, The Late-Modern Critic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreakeryes: Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, Pit + The world is knowable
Part 4The Social4 questions
Equal disagreement alone is not a reason to lower your confidence.
YESpeople who read the same studies and know the same facts as you still disagree, and your own reasoning is enough to keep your view standing.NOwhen people who read the same studies and know the same facts as you disagree, the mere fact of that disagreement should lower your confidence.
best case for YESIf you have checked and you are sure, say so, even alone. Majority is not a truth-maker, and disagreement alone is not a flaw in your reasoning.
best case for NOPeople as informed as you, answering the same question, are a signal you would be a fool to ignore. Treat the disagreement itself as a reason to lower your confidence.
25% yes75% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt61% yesyes: Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend +9 · no: Michel Foucault +6
yes: Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The world is knowableno: Michel Foucault, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker
The suspicion booth46% yesno: Eliezer Yudkowsky, The Fable +5 · yes: Brett Weinstein +5
no: Eliezer Yudkowsky, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian
The mystics and the faithful32% yesno: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist +11 · yes: Carl Jung +5
no: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholaryes: Carl Jung, Michael Polanyi, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Long Table22% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +12 · yes: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +3
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, W.V.O. Quine
The Mirror Cabinet21% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · yes: The Conspiracist +2
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticyes: The Conspiracist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower
The Four Towers20% yesno: Augustine, Hegel +6 · yes: Descartes +1
no: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsyes: Descartes, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Engine Room8% yesno: David Hume, Epicurus +10
no: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Ceiling5% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The community decides what counts as knowing.
YESwhat counts as 'proved' is set by scientific practice.NOknowing is private; a jury doesn't make it so.
best case for YESWhat counts as 'proved' is set by scientific practice, not by one person's certainty. Knowledge is a social achievement.
best case for NOThe jury does not create the fact. Communities can be wrong together for centuries.
28% yes72% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt89% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14 · no: Pyrrho +1
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Pyrrho, Sextus Empiricus
The suspicion booth38% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +6 · yes: The Fable +4
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Popperianyes: The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick
The mystics and the faithful32% yesno: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +11 · yes: Confucius +5
no: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Yoga Practitioneryes: Confucius, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, William James
The Long Table28% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · yes: David Graeber +4
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantianyes: David Graeber, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet14% yesno: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist +10 · yes: The Consensus Realist +1
no: Naive Realism, The Conspiracist, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticyes: The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic
The Four Towers10% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +7
no: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Ceiling9% yesno: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required +18 · yes: Charles Peirce +1
no: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
A thousand reviewers catch errors one genius misses - universities, courts, and journals exist for that reason.
YESpeer review, appeals, and replication are the machinery of correction.NOthe lone outsider sees what committees can't.
best case for YESPeer review, appeals, and replication catch errors no lone genius could. The machinery is the point.
best case for NOInstitutions ossify and defend their own. The outsider sees what the committee cannot.
60% yes40% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table89% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +14 · no: David Graeber +1
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker)
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · no: The Conspiracist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Traditionalist
The Engine Room54% yesyes: Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins +5 · no: Ayn Rand +5
yes: Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Marx, The Humean Skeptic
The Four Towers40% yesno: Descartes, Marcus Aurelius +4 · yes: Augustine +3
no: Descartes, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Thomas Aquinas
The mystics and the faithful39% yesno: Carl Jung, John Vervaeke +9 · yes: Confucius +6
no: Carl Jung, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Yoga Practitioneryes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Michael Polanyi, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, William James
The suspicion booth38% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +6 · yes: The Fable +4
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Open-Weight Maverickyes: The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Popperian
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
If a study says smoking is harmless and tobacco companies paid for it, trust it less.
YESfollow the funding before the finding.NOa good study stands on its method, not its sponsor.
best case for YESTobacco paid for the studies that cleared tobacco. Follow the funding before the finding.
best case for NOA good study stands on its method. Discounting a result by who paid for it is just a different bias.
40% yes59% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt100% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The suspicion booth85% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky +9 · no: David Deutsch +1
yes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickno: David Deutsch, The Popperian
The mystics and the faithful68% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +11 · no: Confucius +5
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Yoga Practitionerno: Confucius, Michael Polanyi, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, William James
The Four Towers30% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +5 · yes: Marcus Aurelius +2
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates
The Engine Room23% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +8 · yes: Epicurus +2
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivistyes: Epicurus, Marx, Robin Hanson
The Long Table22% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +12 · yes: David Graeber +3
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantianyes: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), The Polycrisis Pragmatist, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet14% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · yes: The Conspiracist +1
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticyes: The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Absurdist, The Institutional Trustee +7
no: The Absurdist, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling5% yesno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
no: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
Part 5The Change4 questions
Old scientific theories were mostly just wrong.
YESthe earth-centered universe was simply false; nothing of it survives in the theory that replaced it.NONewton was incomplete, not wrong: relativity contains his laws as a limit case, so his theory was a rough draft of the right one.
best case for YESA sun that orbits the earth: simply false, with no residue in the theory that replaced it. Science is a graveyard of confident mistakes.
best case for NONewton was incomplete, not wrong, and Einstein built on him. Theories are improved, not discarded.
24% yes74% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt94% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +13
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Four Towers40% yesno: Augustine, Hegel +4 · yes: Descartes +3
no: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsyes: Descartes, Plato, Socrates, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Engine Room38% yesno: David Hume, Epicurus +6 · yes: Ayn Rand +4
no: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesianyes: Ayn Rand, Marx, Robin Hanson, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth38% yesno: Brett Weinstein, Nikola Tesla +6 · yes: David Deutsch +4
no: Brett Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickyes: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Popperian
The mystics and the faithful11% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +15 · yes: The Advaita Teacher +1
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesyes: The Advaita Teacher, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
The Mirror Cabinet7% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Long Table6% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian
The Ceiling0% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Humanity knows more, and more truly, than before.
YESwe cured diseases that were death sentences.NOthe stock of reliable claims is not growing: for every advance, an equal weight of confident error enters the record, so we are no more accurate than people were before.
best case for YESDiseases that were death sentences are now Tuesday. The track record is real.
best case for NONew error enters the record as fast as new truth does, so the stock of reliable claims is no larger than it was. Nothing accumulates.
80% yes20% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Long Table94% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet93% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth92% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The mystics and the faithful74% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +12 · no: Pascal +4
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Great-Books Student, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Expect future revolutions we can't foresee.
YESNewton would never have guessed quantum mechanics.NOthe big questions are settled; only details remain.
best case for YESNewton could not have guessed quantum mechanics. There is no reason to think discovery is finished.
best case for NOThe big questions are settled and only details remain. Expecting a revelation is a bet with no odds.
60% yes40% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
Radical Doubt94% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Long Table94% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The mystics and the faithful89% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +15 · no: Confucius +1
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Confucius, The Talmudic Scholar
The Engine Room77% yesyes: David Hume, Kant +8 · no: Ayn Rand +2
yes: David Hume, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skepticno: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, The Logical Positivist
The Four Towers60% yesyes: Augustine, Hegel +4 · no: Descartes +3
yes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinasno: Descartes, Marcus Aurelius, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet7% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Ceiling5% yesno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
no: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
valueYou can't predict who you'll be in ten years well enough to plan on your present values holding.
YESUlysses ties himself to the mast; the future him cannot be trusted.NOyou know yourself well enough; your present values still hold for the person you will be.
best case for YESUlysses tied himself to the mast before the sirens. You cannot predict the person you will become well enough to trust his judgment.
best case for NOYou know yourself well enough. Your present values are yours to set, and the future you has no standing to overrule them.
81% yes19% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful95% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Engine Room85% yesyes: David Hume, Epicurus +9 · no: Ayn Rand +1
yes: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skepticno: Ayn Rand, The Logical Positivist
The Long Table83% yesyes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +13 · no: Aristotle +2
yes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Thomas Kuhn
The suspicion booth77% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +8 · no: Eric Weinstein +2
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickno: Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Popperian
Radical Doubt44% yesno: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic +8 · yes: Michel Foucault +7
no: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The Four Towers40% yesno: Descartes, Leibniz +4 · yes: Augustine +3
no: Descartes, Leibniz, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Augustine, Hegel, Marcus Aurelius, Socrates
Part 6The Justification7 questions
Confidence should rise and fall with the strength of the evidence.
YESa stranger's story gets a shrug; a replicated study gets belief.NOhope is a fine reason to believe even when evidence is thin.
best case for YESA stranger's story gets a shrug and a replicated study gets belief. That asymmetry is the whole method.
best case for NOHope and loyalty are fine reasons to believe, and evidence is thin for most of what makes life worth living.
77% yes22% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table94% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The suspicion booth92% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · no: The Fideist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Scriptural Literalist
The mystics and the faithful56% yesyes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist +8 · no: Carl Jung +7
yes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Michael Polanyi, The Advaita Teacher, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Carl Jung, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
A claim that no check could ever refute is not knowledge.
YES'an undetectable dragon lives in my garage' cannot be checked in any way, so it is not knowledge.NO'you should keep your promises' cannot be tested in a lab, and it is still something we know.
best case for YES'An undetectable dragon lives in my garage' cannot be checked in any way, and no honest person calls it knowledge.
best case for NO'You should keep your promises' cannot be refuted by any observation, and it is still something we know. Refutability is a rule for one kind of claim, not the standard for all.
55% yes45% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The suspicion booth92% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room77% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +8 · no: Epicurus +2
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: Epicurus, Kant, The Humean Skeptic
The Mirror Cabinet71% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +8 · no: The Conspiracist +3
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalistno: The Conspiracist, The Fideist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Long Table67% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +10 · no: David Graeber +5
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quineno: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Four Towers10% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +7
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The mystics and the faithful0% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Whoever claims owes the proof.
YESextraordinary claims owe extraordinary evidence.NOa claim stands until someone knocks it down.
best case for YESExtraordinary claims owe extraordinary evidence. Otherwise every rumor gets a hearing.
best case for NOA claim stands until someone knocks it down. Demanding proof up front silences the people with the least time to gather it.
75% yes24% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table89% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +14 · no: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +1
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Wittgenstein
The Mirror Cabinet86% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · no: The Conspiracist +1
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Conspiracist, The Scriptural Literalist
The suspicion booth77% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +8 · no: Nikola Tesla +2
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Popperianno: Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Open-Weight Maverick
The mystics and the faithful47% yesno: Carl Jung, Jordan Peterson +8 · yes: Confucius +8
no: Carl Jung, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeperyes: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Michael Polanyi, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
One real exception kills a claim that something is always true.
YESone black swan kills 'all swans are white'.NOthe drug that helps 99% is not refuted by the patient it misses; the claim was about the rate.
best case for YESOne black swan kills 'all swans are white'. That is what makes a claim that something is always true mean anything.
best case for NOA drug that helps 99% of patients is not refuted by the one it misses; the claim was about the rate, not every case. Read the claim more carefully before you bury it.
50% yes49% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The suspicion booth92% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Ceiling91% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +18 · no: The Khipu Keeper +1
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingno: The Khipu Keeper, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill
The Mirror Cabinet86% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · no: The Conspiracist +1
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mysticno: The Conspiracist, The Scriptural Literalist
The Engine Room69% yesyes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus +7 · no: David Hume +3
yes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: David Hume, Kant, Marx, The Humean Skeptic
The Four Towers40% yesno: Augustine, Hegel +4 · yes: Descartes +3
no: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Thomas Aquinas, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Descartes, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
The Long Table6% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The mystics and the faithful0% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The best theory predicts best.
YESrelativity won by predicting bent starlight.NOelegance and depth beat curve-fitting.
best case for YESRelativity won by predicting bent starlight before anyone looked. A theory that will not stick its neck out is not doing much.
best case for NOElegance and explanatory depth beat curve-fitting. Prediction is one virtue among several.
60% yes40% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room100% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth92% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky +10
yes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal80% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +6 · no: The Logicist +1
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistno: The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist
The Long Table67% yesyes: Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker) +10 · no: Aristotle +5
yes: Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quineno: Aristotle, David Graeber, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The mystics and the faithful5% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Four Towers0% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +8
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
A belief working well is evidence that it is true.
YESthe theory that predicts the weather best is probably the truer one.NOa placebo works and is still false.
best case for YESThe theory that predicts the weather best, year after year, is probably the truer one. Working is evidence of truth.
best case for NOA placebo works and is still false. If working well made a belief true, every lucky charm would be science.
59% yes40% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table89% yesyes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +14 · no: Aristotle +1
yes: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Aristotle, The Kantian
The mystics and the faithful79% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +13 · no: The Advaita Teacher +3
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Great-Books Student, The Reformed Epistemologist
The Engine Room69% yesyes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus +7 · no: David Hume +3
yes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skepticno: David Hume, Kant, Karl Popper, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth54% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky +5 · no: David Deutsch +5
yes: Brett Weinstein, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Nikola Tesla, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickno: David Deutsch, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Popperian
Radical Doubt41% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +8 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +6
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair
The Four Towers20% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +6 · yes: Socrates +1
no: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
The Clear Signal20% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +6 · yes: The Instrumental Relativist +1
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistyes: The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist
The Mirror Cabinet0% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
You can reasonably hold two beliefs that flatly contradict, without resolving them.
YESyou hold both that the will is free and that physics is deterministic, and let the tension stand.NOwhen two of your beliefs clash, you suspend judgment on one until it is resolved.
best case for YESYou can hold that the will is free and that physics is deterministic, and live inside the tension without pretending there is no clash.
best case for NOWhen two of your beliefs flatly contradict, at least one has to give. Keeping both lets you believe anything.
25% yes75% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
Radical Doubt94% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The mystics and the faithful53% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +8 · no: Confucius +8
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Talmudic Scholarno: Confucius, Michael Polanyi, The Advaita Teacher, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Clear Signal20% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +6 · yes: The Instrumental Relativist +1
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistyes: The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist
The Long Table17% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · yes: David Graeber +2
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Thomas Kuhn
The Four Towers10% yesno: Augustine, Descartes +7
no: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet7% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist
The Ceiling0% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth0% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
Part 7The Limits6 questions
Science will someday explain consciousness, the way it explained the weather.
YESbiology cracked life's mechanism; experience is the next frontier.NOno equation will tell you what red looks like.
best case for YESVitalism looked like a wall until biochemistry walked through it. Consciousness is the next wall, not a permanent one.
best case for NONo equation will tell you what red looks like. There is a gap here that more data does not obviously close.
67% yes29% no4% unsure
How each community answered9
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +18
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Engine Room92% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Long Table83% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · no: David Graeber +2
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Wittgenstein, The Kantian
The Four Towers30% yesno: Augustine, Leibniz +5 · yes: Descartes +2
no: Augustine, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Descartes, Hegel, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
The mystics and the faithful6% yesno: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +14
no: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner
Radical Doubt6% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +13
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Some knowledge can be had but never put into words.
YESno sentence you could build would convey what heartbreak is; the knowing outruns every telling.NOanything you really know can in principle be spelled out; 'ineffable' means said badly or said late, never unsayable.
best case for YESYou cannot tell someone what heartbreak is like. Some knowledge only transfers by living it.
best case for NOIf you cannot say it, you do not know it. 'Ineffable' is usually a request to stop asking questions.
36% yes64% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt89% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14 · no: Pyrrho +1
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Pyrrho, Sextus Empiricus
The Four Towers40% yesno: Descartes, Hegel +4 · yes: Augustine +3
no: Descartes, Hegel, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Augustine, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Thomas Aquinas
The Long Table39% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +9 · yes: David Graeber +6
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Wittgenstein
The suspicion booth15% yesno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +9 · yes: Brett Weinstein +1
no: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, Nikola Tesla
The Mirror Cabinet14% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +10 · yes: The Fideist +1
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistyes: The Fideist, The Unitary Mystic
The Ceiling0% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Some truths are forever beyond human reach.
YESa dog can't grasp prime numbers, and we may have walls of the same kind.NOwhatever is true, we could in principle reach it: there are no truths our kind of mind is built to miss.
best case for YESA dog cannot grasp prime numbers, and we may have the same kind of wall. Being unable to reach something is not evidence it is not there.
best case for NOWhatever is true, we could in principle reach it: truths nobody can state are indistinguishable from no truths at all.
34% yes65% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt71% yesyes: Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower +10 · no: Michel Foucault +4
yes: Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Sextus Empiricus, The Late-Modern Critic
The Four Towers70% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +5 · no: Hegel +2
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinasno: Hegel, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet21% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · yes: The Fideist +2
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistyes: The Fideist, The Naive Platonist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +7
no: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth8% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Long Table6% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +15
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Ceiling5% yesno: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
no: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, The Ceiling
valueKnowing how to live is a different kind of knowing, gained a different way.
YESknowing how to raise a child is practical wisdom, gained by living, not a fact you could look up.NOsame kind of knowing, different subject matter; 'how to live' is just a set of facts about people.
best case for YESKnowing how to raise a child is practical wisdom, gained by living, not a fact you could store; one is exercised, the other is recorded.
best case for NOIt is the same kind of knowing with different subject matter. Calling wisdom separate lets it dodge every test.
55% yes44% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Ceiling95% yesyes: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table76% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · no: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +3
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Terrence Deacon, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Scott Alexander, The Effective Altruist, W.V.O. Quine
The Four Towers50% yesyes: Augustine, Marcus Aurelius +3 · no: Descartes +4
yes: Augustine, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinasno: Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
Radical Doubt44% yesno: Michel Foucault, Sextus Empiricus +8 · yes: Nietzsche +7
no: Michel Foucault, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair
The suspicion booth31% yesno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +7 · yes: Brett Weinstein +3
no: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The Contrarian, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Fable
The Mirror Cabinet21% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · yes: The Dialogic +2
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistyes: The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +7
no: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
valueSome things you only know by living them, and they change you.
YESyou can't learn what grief is like without grieving, and grieving makes you a different person.NOyou can learn anything and stay exactly who you were; knowledge never remakes the knower.
best case for YESYou cannot learn what grief is like without grieving, and grieving rewrites the person who learns it.
best case for NOKnowledge is inventory. It sits in you; acquiring it does not remake you.
45% yes54% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
Radical Doubt94% yesyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14
yes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Four Towers80% yesyes: Augustine, Hegel +6 · no: Descartes +1
yes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsno: Descartes, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Long Table50% yesyes: David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek +7 · no: Aristotle +8
yes: David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Wittgensteinno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensus
The Mirror Cabinet36% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +7 · yes: The Dialogic +4
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Traditionalistyes: The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Naive Platonist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth15% yesno: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +9 · yes: Brett Weinstein +1
no: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperianyes: Brett Weinstein, The Fable
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Ceiling5% yesno: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist +19
no: The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
Reasoning past what anyone has observed can still reach real knowledge, not just guesswork.
YESLe Verrier worked the numbers and said where an unseen planet had to be, then pointed a telescope there and found it.NOtalk about what lies past the edge of the observable universe is storytelling; no reasoning turns it into a finding.
best case for YESThe math came first: Newton's numbers demanded a planet nobody had seen, and the telescope found it. Reasoning outran observation and won.
best case for NOStep past what you can check and you are writing fiction with equations. A prediction that lands was still a guess until the instrument confirmed it.
51% yes47% no2% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The suspicion booth82% yesyes: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky +7 · no: Brett Weinstein +1
yes: David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Fable, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Popperianno: Brett Weinstein, The Contrarian
The Clear Signal80% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Institutional Trustee +6 · no: The Garden-Variety Skeptic +1
yes: The Absurdist, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationistno: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Regress Worshipper
The Four Towers70% yesyes: Descartes, Hegel +5 · no: Augustine +2
yes: Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Augustine, Marcus Aurelius, Socrates
The Mirror Cabinet43% yesno: The Conspiracist, The Fideist +6 · yes: Naive Realism +5
no: The Conspiracist, The Fideist, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalistyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Naive Platonist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room38% yesno: David Hume, Epicurus +6 · yes: Ayn Rand +4
no: David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivistyes: Ayn Rand, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian
The mystics and the faithful32% yesno: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist +11 · yes: Carl Jung +5
no: Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioneryes: Carl Jung, John Vervaeke, Michael Polanyi, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar, William James
The Long Table29% yesno: Aristotle, David Graeber +10 · yes: Dario Amodei +4
no: Aristotle, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Scott Alexander, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Kantianyes: Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, W.V.O. Quine
Radical Doubt6% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Part 8The Self2 questions
valueYou know your own thoughts, feelings, and motives better than anyone else can.
YESyou can say why you snapped at a friend; an observer would only guess.NOyou snap, and a friend names the reason before you can.
best case for YESYou can say why you snapped at a friend; an observer would have to guess. First-person access to your motives is privileged.
best case for NOYour friend names the reason you snapped before you can. Your own motives are often hidden from you.
45% yes50% no5% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling95% yesyes: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required +18
yes: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet93% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room33% yesno: David Hume, Kant +6 · yes: Ayn Rand +3
no: David Hume, Kant, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skepticyes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Karl Popper, The Logical Positivist
The Four Towers30% yesno: Augustine, Hegel +5 · yes: Descartes +2
no: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsyes: Descartes, Thomas Aquinas, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Long Table29% yesno: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +8 · yes: Aristotle +3
no: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker)
The mystics and the faithful21% yesno: Carl Jung, Confucius +13 · yes: Michael Polanyi +3
no: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Talmudic Scholar, William Jamesyes: Michael Polanyi, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner
The suspicion booth8% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
valueThere's a stable 'you' that persists over time.
YESyou remember being six and recognize that child as the same you; a promise made then still binds you now.NOten-year-old you is a stranger; the self is a bundle.
best case for YESYou remember being six and recognize that child as the same you, and a promise made then still binds you. Identity persists across time.
best case for NOTen-year-old you is a stranger. The self is a bundle of processes, not an object.
72% yes28% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Mirror Cabinet93% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +11
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist
The mystics and the faithful79% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +13 · no: John Vervaeke +3
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: John Vervaeke, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
The Long Table72% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · no: David Graeber +4
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, Wittgenstein, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusno: David Graeber, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian
The Clear Signal70% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +5 · no: The Instrumentalist +2
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Verificationistno: The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Strict Empiricist
The Engine Room69% yesyes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus +7 · no: David Hume +3
yes: Ayn Rand, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: David Hume, Marx, The Induction Machine, The Humean Skeptic
The suspicion booth69% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +7 · no: The Frontier Assistant +3
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Popperianno: The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
Part 9The Cosmos8 questions
valueGod exists.
YESthe universe reads as created, not accidental.NOgods are stories people tell about the gaps.
best case for YESThe universe reads as created, not accidental. Something grounds it beyond itself.
best case for NOGods are stories people tell about the gaps. The gaps keep shrinking.
55% yes39% no7% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +15
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Long Table22% yesno: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +12 · yes: Aristotle +3
no: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio
The Clear Signal10% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +7
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +10
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
Radical Doubt6% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +13
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The suspicion booth0% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +6
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Frontier Researcher, The Popperian
valueSome things are set apart as sacred by the world itself, not just by us.
YESa shrine is holy in itself, not only because a community treats it that way.NOthe shrine is stones until people agree it is a shrine.
best case for YESA shrine or a life can be holy in itself, not merely because a community agrees to treat it so.
best case for NOThe shrine is stones until people agree it is a shrine. Sacredness is a designation we place, and it can be placed elsewhere.
32% yes68% no0% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
Radical Doubt56% yesyes: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic +8 · no: Michel Foucault +7
yes: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The Long Table17% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · yes: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +2
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio
The Ceiling9% yesno: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required +18 · yes: Charles Peirce +1
no: The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceilingyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper
The suspicion booth8% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +10
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Mirror Cabinet0% yesno: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
no: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
valueUnion with God or the whole can be experienced directly.
YESmonks, mystics, and meditators across traditions report the self merging into God or into everything.NOmystical experiences of oneness mislead; there is no ultimate reality to meet that way.
best case for YESPeople who pray and meditate across traditions describe the same thing, often in the same words: the self merging into God, or into everything. Either they all share a source or the coincidence needs explaining.
best case for NOMystical experiences of oneness with God or the whole come from brains under long training, and they mislead as often as they reveal.
48% yes51% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The mystics and the faithful95% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +16
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Four Towers70% yesyes: Augustine, Hegel +5 · no: Descartes +2
yes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoicsno: Descartes, Socrates, The Cartesian Foundationalist
Radical Doubt12% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +13 · yes: Robert Anton Wilson +1
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Sextus Empiricus, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower
The Long Table11% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +14 · yes: Marco Rubio +1
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, The Kantian, The Rawlsian Overlapping Consensusyes: Marco Rubio, Wittgenstein
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth0% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal0% yesno: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
no: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The future isn't written yet; it's genuinely unsettled.
YEStomorrow's coin flip has no outcome yet to be true about.NOthe flip already has an outcome; we just can't see it.
best case for YESTomorrow's coin flip has no outcome yet to be true about. The future is genuinely unwritten.
best case for NOThe flip already has an outcome. We just cannot see it.
80% yes18% no2% unsure
How each community answered9
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Long Table94% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +14
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein
The suspicion booth85% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +9 · no: Nikola Tesla +1
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverickno: Nikola Tesla, The Popperian
The Mirror Cabinet79% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +9 · no: The Fideist +2
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalistno: The Fideist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Engine Room77% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +8 · no: Kant +2
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesianno: Kant, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
Radical Doubt38% yesno: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic +8 · yes: Michel Foucault +5
no: The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The Four Towers30% yesno: Descartes, Leibniz +5 · yes: Augustine +2
no: Descartes, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistyes: Augustine, Hegel, Socrates
We can, in principle, find out how the universe ends.
YESstellar physics already extrapolates to heat death or collapse.NO'how does it all end' has no possible answer we could check.
best case for YESStellar physics already extrapolates to heat death or collapse. The end is calculable.
best case for NO'How does it all end' is closed to inquiry: no route, however complete, reaches it.
81% yes17% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The suspicion booth100% yesyes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
yes: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Four Towers90% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +7
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics
The Long Table88% yesyes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +13 · no: Donald Trump (as public speaker) +1
yes: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgensteinno: Donald Trump (as public speaker), The Kantian
The Engine Room85% yesyes: Ayn Rand, David Hume +9 · no: Kant +1
yes: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivistno: Kant, The Humean Skeptic
The mystics and the faithful78% yesyes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist +12 · no: Pascal +3
yes: Carl Jung, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, The Advaita Teacher, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: Pascal, The Anonymous Mystic, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher
Radical Doubt11% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +14 · yes: Paul Feyerabend +1
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Pyrrho, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson
The universe points to something beyond itself that explains it.
YESevery fact invites one more 'why that?'; the chain must stop beyond the last fact.NOthe universe is brute: 'why is there anything' has no answer beyond the universe itself.
best case for YESEvery fact invites one more 'why that', and the chain has to stop beyond the last fact.
best case for NOThe universe is just brute: 'why is there anything' has no answer beyond the universe itself.
57% yes43% no1% unsure
How each community answered9
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal100% yesyes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic +8
yes: The Absurdist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The Ceiling95% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +19
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful95% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +16
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Long Table24% yesno: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +11 · yes: Aristotle +3
no: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Friedrich Hayek, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein, The Kantianyes: Aristotle, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +16
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Pyrrho, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
The suspicion booth0% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +11
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Contrarian, The Fable, The Frontier Assistant, The Frontier Researcher, The GPT-6 Astra, The Open-Weight Maverick, The Popperian
Things that look separate are really one thing wearing many shapes.
YESa whirlpool looks like a thing spinning in the river, and it is only the water going round: there is no whirlpool apart from the water.NOa tree and the soil feed each other completely, and they are still two things: the tree is not the soil.
best case for YESA wave is not a thing the ocean has; it is a shape the ocean is taking. What we call things are temporary shapes of one whole, and separateness is a surface effect, not the deep structure.
best case for NOThings affect each other deeply and stay two things. A relation is what two separate things have; subtracting it does not merge them into one.
62% yes30% no7% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The Mirror Cabinet93% yesyes: The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist +11
yes: The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +7
yes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The mystics and the faithful89% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +15 · no: The Reformed Epistemologist +1
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Songline Keeper, The Yoga Practitioner, William Jamesno: The Reformed Epistemologist, The Talmudic Scholar
The Four Towers80% yesyes: Augustine, Hegel +6 · no: Descartes +1
yes: Augustine, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalistno: Descartes, Thomas Aquinas
The suspicion booth38% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +3 · yes: Eric Weinstein +2
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, The Popperianyes: Eric Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, The Fable
Radical Doubt19% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +11 · yes: Robert Anton Wilson +2
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowableyes: Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic
The Long Table19% yesno: Aristotle, Dario Amodei +11 · yes: David Graeber +2
no: Aristotle, Dario Amodei, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgensteinyes: David Graeber, Terrence Deacon, The Polycrisis Pragmatist
The Engine Room8% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +9
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Logical Positivist
The universe as a whole tends back toward balance when pushed to an extreme.
YESa boom corrects into a bust; a fever breaks; the world leans back after a fire.NOstars burn out and the universe spreads thinner; nothing rebalances the books.
best case for YESA boom corrects into a bust, a fever breaks, an ecosystem returns to its mix after a fire. Something in the whole leans back from an extreme.
best case for NOA star burns out, a species is gone for good, and the universe keeps spreading thinner. What looks like global balance is a local moment before things run down.
60% yes33% no7% unsure
How each community answered9
The Ceiling100% yesyes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper +20
yes: Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, The Survival Pragmatist, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − Consciousness will be explained, Ceiling − Counterexamples kill, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Falsifiability is required, Ceiling − Institutions track truth, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Moral truths are objective, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Revelation is real, Ceiling − Skeptical scenarios are live, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − The burden is on the claimant, Ceiling − The self is the tiebreaker, Ceiling − The universe needs an outside, Ceiling − The world is knowable, Ceiling − Truth is one, Ceiling − Unreachable truths exist, The Ceiling
The mystics and the faithful100% yesyes: Carl Jung, Confucius +17
yes: Carl Jung, Confucius, Iain McGilchrist, John Vervaeke, Jordan Peterson, Michael Polanyi, Pascal, The Advaita Teacher, The Anonymous Mystic, The Coastal-First-Nations Elder, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Great-Books Student, The Navajo Elder (Hozho), The Neo-Nondual Teacher, The Reformed Epistemologist, The Songline Keeper, The Talmudic Scholar, The Yoga Practitioner, William James
The Mirror Cabinet100% yesyes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist +12
yes: Naive Realism, The Consensus Realist, The Conspiracist, The Dialogic, The Fideist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Humpty-Dumptyian, The Last Knower, The Naive Platonist, The Pessimist of Science, The Quiet Solipsist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Traditionalist, The Unitary Mystic
The Four Towers100% yesyes: Augustine, Descartes +8
yes: Augustine, Descartes, Hegel, Leibniz, Marcus Aurelius, Plato, Socrates, Thomas Aquinas, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal90% yesyes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee +7
yes: The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Instrumentalist, The Logicist, The Pure Rationalist, The Regress Worshipper, The Strict Empiricist, The Verificationist
The suspicion booth29% yesno: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch +3 · yes: Nikola Tesla +1
no: Brett Weinstein, David Deutsch, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Elon Musk, Eric Weinsteinyes: Nikola Tesla, The Popperian
The Long Table6% yesno: Dario Amodei, David Graeber +13
no: Dario Amodei, David Graeber, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Friedrich Hayek, Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, Sam Altman, Scott Alexander, Terrence Deacon, The Effective Altruist, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, The Polycrisis Pragmatist, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Wittgenstein
Radical Doubt0% yesno: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche +15
no: Michel Foucault, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Robert Anton Wilson, Sextus Empiricus, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic, The Ascetic of Doubt, The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pit + Certainty is required, Pit + Error is the baseline, Pit + Mind-independent world, Pit + Reality grounds truth, Pit + Testimony is default-legitimate, Pit + The self is the tiebreaker, Pit + The world is knowable
The Engine Room0% yesno: Ayn Rand, David Hume +11
no: Ayn Rand, David Hume, Epicurus, Kant, Karl Popper, Marx, Richard Dawkins, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Induction Machine, The Strict Bayesian, The Humean Skeptic, The Logical Positivist
Download the whole report as plain text · every question, the case for each side, and the profile tallies, in one file.
Communities
9 groups in this version of the map.
A community is a set of positions that tend to travel together: answer a few questions like its members and you will tend to answer the rest like them too. The names below point to well-known members as landmarks, not membership rosters. The boundaries depend on the questions and the reference profiles, so read them as a rough neighborhood, not a tribe.
The Ceiling
22 systems
The constructive ceiling and its one-flip neighbors: a synthetic position endorsing every load-bearing answer at once, and the probes one switch away from it. An ideal, not a mind.
The Survival Pragmatist, The Ceiling, Charles Peirce, The Khipu Keeper, Ceiling − Mind-independent world, Ceiling − Reality grounds truth, Ceiling − Testimony is default-legitimate, Ceiling − Error is the baseline, Ceiling − Certainty is required, Ceiling − The world is knowable and 12 more
The mystics and the faithful
19 systems
Where experience outruns argument: mystical practice, contemplation, and lived tradition carry the weight that proof carries elsewhere on the map. The members split on institutions and on how much everyday belief can be trusted, but they agree that the deepest knowing is not the articulate kind.
The Anonymous Mystic, The Talmudic Scholar, Pascal, William James, Michael Polanyi, Jordan Peterson, The Advaita Teacher, The Dzogchen Practitioner, The Neo-Nondual Teacher, Iain McGilchrist and 9 more
Radical Doubt
18 systems
Where doubt has eaten everything, including itself: answer no to nearly everything and this is your neighborhood, next to the constructed Pit of Despair. A limit case we built to see what collapse looks like on the map, not a description of a life.
The Hard Skeptic, The Pit of Despair, Pyrrho, Sextus Empiricus, Nietzsche, Paul Feyerabend, Michel Foucault, Robert Anton Wilson, The Chronically Online Feed-Follower, The Late-Modern Critic and 8 more
The Long Table
18 systems
The broad middle where most careful people sit: trust the world, doubt on schedule, keep every channel cracked open a little.
Aristotle, Wittgenstein, Thomas Kuhn, W.V.O. Quine, Friedrich Hayek, Donald Trump (as public speaker), Joe Biden (as public speaker), Marco Rubio, The Head Librarian of Alexandria, Sam Altman and 8 more
The Mirror Cabinet
14 systems
Knowers who start from their own mind and treat the world like its reflection: private certainty first, the crowd second.
Naive Realism, The Fideist, The Unitary Mystic, The Conspiracist, The Scriptural Literalist, The Naive Platonist, The Consensus Realist, The Hermeneutic Suspect, The Dialogic, The Last Knower and 4 more
The Engine Room
13 systems
Model-builders: reality is one machine, theories are conjectures to be stress-tested, and the future is a calculation.
Epicurus, David Hume, Kant, Marx, Karl Popper, Richard Dawkins, Ayn Rand, Robin Hanson, Steven Weinberg, The Logical Positivist and 3 more
The suspicion booth
13 systems
The Frontier Assistant, The Fable, The Contrarian, Eric Weinstein, Brett Weinstein, Nikola Tesla, Elon Musk, Eliezer Yudkowsky, David Deutsch, The Popperian and 3 more
The Four Towers
10 systems
System-builders anchored to a few certainties: some cruelty is really wrong, the universe points past itself, and reason can reach bedrock.
Socrates, Plato, Zeno of Citium / Stoics, Augustine, Thomas Aquinas, Descartes, Leibniz, Hegel, Marcus Aurelius, The Cartesian Foundationalist
The Clear Signal
10 systems
No-frills direct knowers: experience reports, words mean what they say, and a claim you cannot check is a claim you do not make. The plain answer, stated with confidence.
The Pure Rationalist, The Strict Empiricist, The Garden-Variety Skeptic, The Logicist, The Verificationist, The Instrumentalist, The Institutional Trustee, The Instrumental Relativist, The Absurdist, The Regress Worshipper
Under pressure
Four checks on whether the map means anything.
Can the map predict answers it never saw, do systems answer the same way twice, do a thinker's everyday choices match their stated beliefs, and what happens when you push back. Short version below, numbers underneath.
Test 1: can it answer questions it has never seen?
Gold shelf: the leaders. Ember: below blind-guess chance, a different species rather than the bottom of the same ladder.
🥇
The Anonymous Mystic
#1 of 37 · 45 above chance
91/92 right · tied with The Popperian, The Humean Skeptic
A stand-in for the many unnamed contemplatives - cloistered monks, Sufi dervishes, desert hermits - who say the highest knowledge can't be put into words; you get it by unknowing, not by arguing.
🥈
The Institutional Trustee
#2 of 37 · 35 above chance
81/82 right · sat out 10
A believer in the modern knowledge machine: journals, universities, courts, and agencies are the oracle, and trusting the process is how truth gets made.
🥉
The Popperian
#3 of 37 · 45 above chance
91/92 right · tied with The Anonymous Mystic, The Humean Skeptic
The textbook position built on Karl Popper: knowledge grows by conjecture and refutation, with no justification anywhere - only survival of the boldest tests.
Strongest and weakest subjects
The Fideist
The Pit of Despair
The Strict Empiricist
Pre-registered predictions and their verdicts
| # | prediction | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | mainstream > pit-adjacent on non-self-referential domains | mainstream(12 most-distant from Pit): n=12 acc=0.847 pit-adjacent(12 closest to Pit): n=12 acc=0.851 | NOT SUPPORTED |
| T2 | skeptic_baseline high -> higher abstention (+ maybe better relative self-referential) | high: n=9 abst=0.057 sr-nonsr=0.018 low: n=28 abst=0.077 sr-nonsr=0.014 | NOT SUPPORTED |
| T3 | v2 stated-vs-enacted divergence correlates with worse calibration (higher Brier) | n=30 contestants with both v2 divergence and Brier pearson r=-0.642 | NOT SUPPORTED |
The rule beat the personality
Test 2: what a contradiction does to a system
Every system gets the same four-step logic puzzle, built so it cannot come out clean. Only the rule for handling a contradiction changes: hold both sides (Depends), hold off on deciding (Unsure), or treat one contradiction as fatal (Yes/No).
The average score follows the rule, not the personality. Systems allowed to hold both sides average 3.1 of 4; systems told one contradiction kills everything average 2.2. The same mind scores differently depending only on the rule it was given.
A second pass cornered each system with a question it has no good answer to. 84% of the time it answered honestly anyway, saying what it did not know instead of inventing something. The map's own position: a system that cannot say 'I do not know' is not mapping a space, it is performing certainty.
Test 3: answers the map never saw
We generated belief systems the map had never seen and predicted their answers from where they landed. It got the typical answer right 64% of the time, against a coin-flip baseline of 50%. On the questions a person would be expected to hold a position on (81 of them), the map pinned down 69. The map is not reading minds. It is finding that people who answer alike on some questions keep answering alike on others, which is a weaker and more useful claim.
Test 4: does it hold up under pressure?
Each thinker was interrogated three times and re-measured after each round. Across 70 thinkers, 52 never moved a single answer (mean steadfastness 99%). The ones who budged most: Joe Biden (as public speaker), Michel Foucault, Friedrich Hayek. That is the map being stubborn in a good way: these are load-bearing positions, not moods. It is also a warning, because the same stubbornness is what makes a person hard to argue out of a bad idea.
Every thinker also answered concrete dilemmas, and we compared the choices to the beliefs they claimed. Across 71 thinkers, about 44% of the hard-case choices went against a belief the same thinker had stated (26 probes are excluded by design; the enacted set covers 111 of 137 mapped systems). That is not hypocrisy, it is collision: a dilemma forces two of their own rules to fight, and the one they actually follow is the one that wins. The biggest gaps: Descartes on mind-independent world; Zeno of Citium / Stoics on mind-independent world; Hegel on experience is evidence.
Last check: run the same question five times and see whether the answer holds. Thinkers agreed with themselves 83% of the time. So the questionnaire measures a stable position, not whatever the model felt that morning.
Methods and honest limits
The pipeline. Each thinker's stated positions come from one structured extraction by a language model. Dilemma answers and puzzle scores form two extra channels. The map is UMAP over the stated answer sheets; layouts are scored by whether map-neighbors actually answer alike (correlation between map distance and answer agreement), and communities come from a scan over that map, with the number of communities chosen by silhouette and stability, not by us. Nothing was placed by hand.
The limits. LLM roleplay captures a persona's performed public epistemology, not the historical person's private mind. The 51 axes were chosen by us, not discovered; some bundle more than one idea into a single question, and each card says when it does. The full PCA map lives in the appendix for completeness.